Analysis of disaggregated level energy use income geopolitical risk energy transition and energy price impact on decarbonization of main sectors in BRICS countries by marginal analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of critical factors (i.e. energy consumption (EC) income (GDP) geopolitical risk (GPR) energy transition and energy prices). In doing this the study focuses on Brazil Russia India China and South Africa (BRICS) countries which are the leading emerging countries considers carbon dioxide (CO<inf>2</inf>) emissions industry power and transport sectors uses yearly data from 2000 to 2022 and performs a kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) approach to uncover the marginal impact of the factors. The outcomes demonstrate that (a) the impacts of the factors on sectoral CO<inf>2</inf>emissions vary marginally across economic sectors factors used and levels of the variables, (b) the statistical significance of the factors considered differentiate which implies that some factors are much more critical than others across countries and sectors, (c) for industry sector CO<inf>2</inf>emissions Brazil can benefit from the marginal decreasing impact of gas and renewable EC GDP and GPR whereas it is valid in Russia (South Africa) for gas (GPR and energy prices) impact, (d) for power sector CO<inf>2</inf>emissions Brazil can use nuclear EC energy transition and energy prices whereas nuclear and renewable EC as well as GDP and GPR (renewable EC and GPR) is beneficial for Russia (South Africa), (e) for transport sector CO<inf>2</inf>emissions GPR (renewable EC) can be relied on in Brazil (Russia), and (f) the KRLS approach has a superior prediction capacity reaching 99.8%. Overall the study empirically shows the varying marginal impacts of the factors on the decarbonization of the sectors. © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.