A CMIP6-based drought assessment over Küçük Menderes BasinTürkiye

Abstract

Droughts are the phenomenon of which their magnitude and frequency are forecasted to escalate over time primarily due to the impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence the potential consequences of the expected drought events are of the great importance in performing effective adaptation and regional mitigation strategies. The objective of the current study is to explore the consequences of climate change on the future droughts in Küçük Menderes Basin in western Türkiye. This objective will be addressed by examining the outputs of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) incorporated within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) with particular emphasis on two contrasting emission trajectories: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The daily precipitation and temperature projections are then utilized in determination of the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices with consideration to 2015–2039 as near future 2040–2069 as mid-term future and 2070–2099 as late future time frames. According to projections based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the number of dry months is anticipated to escalate by approximately 26.12% and 39.80% respectively toward the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in contrast to the reference period (1985–2014). Results of the current study provide valuable insights for developing adaptation strategies to address future consequences of drought events in the Küçük Menderes Basin amid evolving climate conditions. © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.