Uncertainty assessment techniques for system availability

Abstract

This paper provides an approach for assessing the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the availability of a two-state repairable system. During the design stage it is often necessary to allocate scarce testing resources among various components in an efficient manner. Although there are a variety of importance and uncertainty measures for the reliability of a system there are limited measures for systems availability. This study attempts to fill the gaps on availability importance measures and provide insights for techniques to reduce the variance of a system-level availability estimate efficiently. The variance importance measure is constructed such that it provides a measure of the improvement in the variance of the system level availability estimate through the reduction of the variance of the various component availability estimates. In addition a cost model is developed that trades-off cost and uncertainty. The measure is illustrated for five common system structures. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to illustrate the use of the assessment tools on a specific problem. Observations conclude that results are consistent with reliability importance measures. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.