Conspiracy Theories as Instruments of Power: The Case of Conspiracy Beliefs in the Wake of the 2023 Earthquakes in Türkiye

Abstract

The prevalent view associates political disempowerment with increased conspiracy beliefs. However, the function of conspiracy theories for those in power to sustain their dominance is less understood, particularly in ecologically valid and non-WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) settings. Our research examined the emergence of conspiracy theories following the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye and their relation to voting behavior in the subsequent general election, which occurred three months later. In Study 1, we analyzed the activities of 26,992 users on X (Twitter), identifying a preference among supporters of Erdogan, the incumbent president, for earthquake-related conspiracy theories. In Study 2, face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 3568 individuals showed a correlation between the endorsement of these theories and increased support for Erdogan and his coalition, independent of other variables. These findings highlighted the significant role conspiracy theories that can play in bolstering authority and shaping electoral outcomes.