Browsing by Author "Rotbeei, Farzad"

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Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
A CMIP6-based drought assessment over Küçük Menderes BasinTürkiye
(Springer, 2025) Farzad Rotbeei; Mustafa Nuri Balov; Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari; Babak Vaheddoost; Vaheddoost, Babak; Rotbeei, Farzad; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Nuri Balov, Mustafa
Droughts are the phenomenon of which their magnitude and frequency are forecasted to escalate over time primarily due to the impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence the potential consequences of the expected drought events are of the great importance in performing effective adaptation and regional mitigation strategies. The objective of the current study is to explore the consequences of climate change on the future droughts in Küçük Menderes Basin in western Türkiye. This objective will be addressed by examining the outputs of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) incorporated within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) with particular emphasis on two contrasting emission trajectories: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The daily precipitation and temperature projections are then utilized in determination of the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices with consideration to 2015–2039 as near future 2040–2069 as mid-term future and 2070–2099 as late future time frames. According to projections based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the number of dry months is anticipated to escalate by approximately 26.12% and 39.80% respectively toward the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in contrast to the reference period (1985–2014). Results of the current study provide valuable insights for developing adaptation strategies to address future consequences of drought events in the Küçük Menderes Basin amid evolving climate conditions. © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Projected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025) Farzad Rotbeei; Mustafa Nuri Balov; Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari; Babak Vaheddoost; Vaheddoost, Babak; Rotbeei, Farzad; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Nuri Balov, Mustafa
The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on drought in the Büyük Menderes Basin located in the Aegean region of western Türkiye by using the outcomes of three general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 considering two different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Following a bias correction using a linear scaling method daily precipitation and temperature projections are used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effectiveness of the GCMs in projecting precipitation and temperature is evaluated using observational data from the reference period (1985–2014). Future drought conditions are then assessed based on drought indices for three periods: 2015–2040 (near future) 2041–2070 (mid-term future) and 2071–2100 (late future). Consequently the number of dry months is projected and expected to elevate informed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios during the late-century timeframe (2071–2100) in comparison to the baseline period (1985–2014). The findings of this study offer an important understanding for crafting adaptation strategies aimed at reducing future drought impacts in the Büyük Menderes Basin in the face of changing climate conditions. © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.