Çin Finansal Piyasalarında Covid-19 Ateşi: Döviz Piyasası ve Hisse Senedi Piyasası Arasındaki Etkileşim
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Date
2022
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Abstract
COVID-19 pandemisinin ekonomiler üzerindeki etkileri farklı olsa da finansal piyasalar benzer bir yol izlemiştir. Finansal ekonomi yaklaşımları eklenmeyen bir dış şok neticesinde ülkelerin öncelikle finans piyasalarının etkileneceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu doğrultuda dışsal bir etkide ilk aşamada gelişmekte olan ülkelerin borsaları veya döviz kuru piyasası etkilenmekte ikinci aşamada ise bu etki diğer piyasaya sıçramaktadır. Çalışma pandemi öncesi ve pandemi sonrası dönemleri karşılaştırarak pandeminin Çin borsası ve döviz piyasası üzerindeki ön etkisini COVID-19 verileri ve ilgili istatistikler (günlük yeni vaka sayısı yeni ölüm oranları) Pearson korelasyon testi uygulayarak araştırmaktadır. Ayrıca SSEC index ve CNY döviz kurlarının günlük dağılımları karşılaştırmaları olarak box plotlar ile gösterilmiştir. Zira ilk etkilenen piyasanın belirlenmesi piyasalardaki yüksek volatilitenin ve risk unsurunun giderilmesi anlamında politika yapıcılara yol gösterici olacaktır. Sonuçlar iki piyasa arasında önemli bir etkileşim olduğunu ve her iki piyasanın da rastgele davranmadığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlantı rastgele bir yürüyüşe (random walk) karşı makroekonomik politikaları belirlemek için oldukça önemlidir. Para politikası müdahalelerinin finansal piyasaların etkinliğini artırmada olumlu etkisinin olup olmadığı makalenin temel araştırma sorusudur. Araştırmaların bulgularına göre her ne kadar hisse senedi fiyatları rastgele yürüyüşe göre hareket etse de Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin dayandığı gibi bilgiye dayalı bir fiyat hareketi olduğu görülmektedir. İzleyen süreçte belirsizliğin nispeten azalması ve kötümser beklentiler nedeniyle Çin para piyasasının artık yükseliş eğiliminde olduğu söylenebilir.
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Keywords
İktisat-İşletme Finans, İktisat, İşletme Finans, Economics, COVID-19;foreign exchange market;stock market;random walk;efficient market hypothesis (EMH)., COVID-19;Döviz Piyasası;Borsa;Rastgele Yürüyüş;Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi (EMH), Ekonomi
Fields of Science
0502 economics and business, 05 social sciences
Citation
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TESAM Akademi Dergisi
Volume
9
Issue
2
Start Page
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701
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