Enflasyon hedeflemesi maliyet enflasyonu birikim ve bölüşüm
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Date
2009
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AYŞE ÖZDEN BİRKAN
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Abstract
Bu çalışmada üretimde ithal girdi kullanan uluslarası ticarete açık borçlu ve küçük bir ekonomi için tek sektörlü Kalecki tipi bir model geliştirilmiştir. Modelde maliyet eki (mark up) oranının faiz oranı ve döviz kurundaki değişikliklere hassasiyet göstermesinin yanı sıra yerli firmalara yabancılar tarafından uzun dönemli finansman sağlanmaktadır. Geliştirilen model çerçevesinde yüksek faiz oranı ve yerli para biriminin güçlenmesiyle temsil edilen enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının kısa ve uzun dönem ekonomik denge değerlerine olan etkisi incelenmektedir. Olası senaryolardan gelişmekte olan ülkeler için en geçerli olanı kısa dönemde kâr oranı kapasite kullanım oranı ve sermaye birikim hızında miktarı model parametreleriyle belirlenen bir düşüş öngörmektedir. Firmaların borç-sermaye oranının ve dış borçların toplam borç içindeki payının bu sonucun ortaya çıkmasında önemli rol oynadığı görülmektedir. Borç-sermaye oranının sabitlenmesiyle tanımlanan uzun dönemde denge çözümlemesi enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının kısa dönemli daraltıcı etkilerinin uzun dönemli dengesizlikleri de beraberinde getirebileceğine işaret etmektedir.
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