Multiple genetic programming: a new approach to improve genetic-based month ahead rainfall forecasts

Abstract

It is well documented that standalone machine learning methods are not suitable for rainfall forecasting in long lead-time horizons. The task is more difficult in arid and semiarid regions. Addressing these issues the present paper introduces a hybrid machine learning model namely multiple genetic programming (MGP) that improves the predictive accuracy of the standalone genetic programming (GP) technique when used for 1-month ahead rainfall forecasting. The new model uses a multi-step evolutionary search algorithm in which high-performance rain-borne genes from a multigene GP solution are recombined through a classic GP engine. The model is demonstrated using rainfall measurements from two meteorology stations in Lake Urmia Basin Iran. The efficiency of the MGP was cross-validated against the benchmark models namely standard GP and autoregressive state-space. The results indicated that the MGP statistically outperforms the benchmarks at both rain gauge stations. It may reduce the absolute and relative errors by approximately up to 15% and 40% respectively. This significant improvement over standalone GP together with the explicit structure of the MGP model endorse its application for 1-month ahead rainfall forecasting in practice.